SimpleFunctions

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) · Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) is priced at 21¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 30¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 7 inside Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place.

Price history

21¢ current

+12¢
10¢20¢
May 21, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Outcome

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

Rank

#4 of 7

Leader

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 39¢

Range

2¢-39¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

0x5242ae6e...da0e

May 28, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 10m ago

Implied probability

21¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC · 10m ago

Bid

Ask

36¢

Spread

30¢

Reported volume

$93

Family rank

#4 of 7

7 outcomes · Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

Closes

Sep 20, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 36¢

Polymarket
30¢ spread
BidSize
100¢10K
6¢100
3¢250
2¢2.0K
AskSize
36¢22
37¢39
39¢180
52¢15
61¢550
62¢45
74¢92
75¢168

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Sep 20, 2026

Identifier

0x5242ae6e…da0e

SF Signal
SF Index
1203.65
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1203.6%

IY (No)

85.1%

Adj IY

1204%

CRI

4

RV

3435%

VR

7.22

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1203.6%
85.1%
Adj IY
1204%
4
RV
3435%
VR
7.22
IAR
2.4/h
Overround
0.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.