Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Leader sits at 39% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
3rd Place: New People (NL)
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$15
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 20, 2026
115 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
0x57f80a…344c
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Rodina
0xe76b78…4787
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
0xd8dcf4…fef0
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: Civic Platform (GP)
0xfbbad1…4916
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: New People (NL)
0x9c5117…876e
Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place: A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
0x5242ae…da0e
Analysis
This probability represents the odds that the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia will finish in third place in Russia's parliamentary elections. Currently priced at 33%, the LDPR holds a narrow lead over the New People party (32%) and Communist Party (30%), indicating substantial uncertainty about which opposition or systemic party will claim the third position. The outcome hinges on voter mobilization patterns, turnout in different regions, and how protest voting flows across the three competing parties. Russia's next parliamentary election will definitively resolve this market, determining which party achieves third-place vote share. Until then, polling data, party campaign activity, and any changes to electoral rules or candidate registration could shift probabilities among the tightly-clustered contenders.
- ›LDPR currently leads by only 1-3 percentage points over New People and KPRF, with all three parties clustering within a narrow probability band
- ›No substantial 24-hour trading volume on LDPR or New People contracts suggests limited recent information flow and potential for sharp repricing on new data
- ›Historical Russian parliamentary results show opposition party performances can shift significantly based on regional turnout and voter mobilization strategies
- ›The three-way race structure means even modest vote-share gains for one party could eliminate another from third place
- ›Any official polling releases, candidate disqualifications, or campaign developments in the coming weeks could move probabilities meaningfully across the tightly-grouped field
What moved the line
- May 223rd Place: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)↑13pp21→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 223rd Place: Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)↑12pp26→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 223rd Place: A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)↑8pp9→17¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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