Márcio França to win São Paulo Governor Election
Márcio França is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside São Paulo Governor Election Winner.
Price history
1¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Outcome
Márcio França
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
Tarcísio de Freitas 86¢
Range
0¢-86¢
Family volume
$45K
Identifier
0x923a4338...bc1a
May 24, 2026, 9:43 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$107
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · São Paulo Governor Election Winner
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Family volume
$45K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Identifier
0x923a4338…bc1a
Event family
São Paulo Governor Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$45K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Tarcísio de Freitas 86¢
Current share
8%
Tarcísio de Freitas
polymarket · 0x7fad7ba14804a90a2c45352bd52689be4703013123772044badbcf688b79bcee
Kim Kataguiri
polymarket · 0x3b4b2049e1850b8a9a94bef61984a4779e2b5403c65cf87dfa0198847bef02a9
Fernando Haddad
polymarket · 0xf86b558bbb9954ccdd5c72841d33336a6a7ff690908df00a9240decc04d4baa9
Márcio França
polymarket · 0x923a43381c223736db972fb20e8e6e4954d2c1713e3ba729530abaf51accbc1a
Erika Hilton
polymarket · 0xa7f3c548fc9f4c4a57ed02c04609692cbff3f67c0b76d076de67dd822e0ebc6f
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.