Strava’s market cap between $4B and $5B at market close on IPO day
4B–5B is priced at 20¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 37¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside Strava IPO Closing Market Cap.
Price history
20¢ current
−14¢Contract brief
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Outcome
4B–5B
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
7B–10B 30¢
Range
5¢-30¢
Family volume
$86K
Identifier
0xf85d0ac0...ccb9
May 27, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
37¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · Strava IPO Closing Market Cap
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Family volume
$86K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 42¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
Identifier
0xf85d0ac0…ccb9
Event family
Strava IPO Closing Market Cap.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$86K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
7B–10B 30¢
Current share
1%
7B–10B
polymarket · 0x316aaa5290c247b4fd39c5278e619f2c69b1fc3081c89ca04c99715d5b10c775
2B–3B
polymarket · 0x409305168b0a406cda15e7e5b5e974d1de44d5b1e42ccfbfb3c7c2b756ff9c8b
4B–5B
polymarket · 0xf85d0ac0b41e1db5ae9764a4c7f81e0f34b8e8a9880f2a109730f7d4b93bccb9
<2B
polymarket · 0xf2be324a36eaa0c5419ea587163f6522979236df6bf8e8ea074db69108730fc9
No IPO before 2028
polymarket · 0x49b3dd36fa4c46ea7e7e6b2c1bfa4c499987688b2ee2c03d94f16b1a78cbd320
15B+
polymarket · 0x3376be357767ce80a57474bf3b91c797bf34fb396727cd5adfb68b69a6128ec3
5B–7B
polymarket · 0xf545b92fa65432e916ccda728d49d2df4015f6c4236e0a4ea75fb7ad2ce4073f
3B–4B
polymarket · 0x18d204f21472d3cce95ee32b2a728ed5a578eb9b231074dcbd0c41e12aa4e4e6
10B–15B
polymarket · 0xe72210fe2b7f210c7135a9a66f8076a0f41634e8a44ebadeef08aa1d66468b94
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 20% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.