SimpleFunctions

Tie · Toluca vs Tigres Winner?: T

Tie is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 21¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Toluca vs Tigres Winner?: T.

Price history

35¢ current

+24¢
25¢
May 24, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

If Tie wins the Toluca vs Tigres professional CONCACAF Champions Cup soccer game originally scheduled for May 30, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Tie

Rank

#3 of 3

Leader

Toluca 48¢

Range

21¢-48¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXCONCACAFCCUPGAME-26MAY30TOLTIG-TIE

May 25, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 4m ago

Implied probability

35¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 4m ago

Bid

21¢

Ask

35¢

Spread

14¢

24h volume

$14

Family rank

#3 of 3

3 outcomes · Toluca vs Tigres Winner?: T

Closes

Jun 14, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

21 / 35¢

Kalshi
14¢ spread
BidSize
21¢13
12¢38
11¢500
6¢404
5¢1.0K
AskSize
35¢487
57¢37
58¢25
59¢64
60¢85

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Tie wins the Toluca vs Tigres professional CONCACAF Champions Cup soccer game originally scheduled for May 30, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 14, 2026

Identifier

KXCONCACAFCCUPGAME-26MAY30TOLTIG-TIE

SF Signal
SF Index
3506.73
Regime
neutral

Event family

Toluca vs Tigres Winner?: T.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$2K

Outcomes

3

Highest price

Toluca 48¢

Current share

1%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

7013.5%

IY (No)

495.6%

Adj IY

3507%

CRI

4

Overround

-0.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

7013.5%
495.6%
Adj IY
3507%
4
Overround
-0.0%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.