Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30 is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
4¢ current
−46¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Outcome
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$829K
Identifier
0x9772347c...a5fe
May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$109K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$829K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify). An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x9772347c…a5fe
Event family
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? .
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$829K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30 4¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes
When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter
How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 4% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.