Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
4%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$45K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
33 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
0x977234…a5fe
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets assess a 3% chance Ukraine formally agrees to forgo NATO membership before June 30, 2026. The low probability reflects that Ukraine has consistently pursued NATO integration as a strategic priority, particularly since Russia's 2022 invasion. The current level suggests markets view a voluntary agreement as unlikely within the timeframe, though it could shift if major diplomatic developments occur or if military/political circumstances change substantially. The contract resolves based on whether Ukraine's government issues an official commitment not to pursue NATO membership before the deadline. Key drivers include ongoing peace negotiations, if any materialize; statements from Ukrainian leadership; NATO's own posture toward Ukrainian candidacy; and Russia's negotiating position on the conflict.
- ›Ukraine's constitutional commitment to NATO integration, which would require significant political reversal or external pressure to abandon
- ›Status of active peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, as ceasefire talks could include NATO membership discussions
- ›Official statements from Ukrainian President Zelensky or parliament regarding NATO aspirations between now and June 30
- ›Russia's military position and diplomatic leverage—whether tactical shifts alter Ukraine's willingness to negotiate membership terms
- ›NATO's formal position on Ukrainian candidacy, including any scheduled expansion votes or policy announcements before the deadline
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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