Will Aaron Rai finish top 5 for U.S. Open
Aaron Rai is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 15¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside KXPGATOP5-USO26.
Price history
15¢ current
Contract brief
If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Aaron Rai
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
Scottie Scheffler 39¢
Range
1¢-39¢
Family volume
$241
Identifier
KXPGATOP5-USO26-ARAI
May 24, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
15¢
24h volume
$6
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · KXPGATOP5-USO26
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
Family volume
$241
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Aaron Rai finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 U.S. Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
Identifier
KXPGATOP5-USO26-ARAI
Event family
KXPGATOP5-USO26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$241
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Scottie Scheffler 39¢
Current share
3%
Scottie Scheffler
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-SSCH
Rory McIlroy
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-RMCI
Jon Rahm
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-JRAH
Collin Morikawa
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-CMOR
Brooks Koepka
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-BKOE
Min Woo Lee
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-MLEE
Chris Gotterup
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-CGOT
Aaron Rai
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-ARAI
Shane Lowry
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-SLOW
Cameron Young
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-CAME
Alex Smalley
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-ASMA
Akshay Bhatia
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-ABHA
Jacob Bridgeman
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-JBRI
Padraig Harrington
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-PHAR
Matt Fitzpatrick
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-MFIT
Bryson DeChambeau
kalshi · KXPGATOP5-USO26-BDEC
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.