U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027 is priced at 10¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
10¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$34K
Identifier
0x03e12e22...e6dc
May 24, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$34K
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x03e12e22…e6dc
Event family
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? .
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$34K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027 10¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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