US x Cuba military clash in 2026
US x Cuba military clash in 2026 is priced at 51¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 50¢ bid, 51¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
51¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
US x Cuba military clash in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$127K
Identifier
0x333455a7...e884
May 27, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
50¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$189
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$127K
Orderbook snapshot
50 / 51¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x333455a7…e884
Event family
US x Cuba military clash in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$127K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
US x Cuba military clash in 2026 51¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.