Mark Warner to win Virginia Democratic Senate Primary
Mark Warner is priced at 97¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 97¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner.
Price history
97¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Outcome
Mark Warner
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Mark Warner 97¢
Range
0¢-97¢
Family volume
$30K
Identifier
0x7bb47688...08aa
May 29, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
97¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$15K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Family volume
$30K
Orderbook snapshot
97 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia. If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 16, 2026
Identifier
0x7bb47688…08aa
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 93¢, +4¢ versus this page.
Event family
Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$30K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Mark Warner 97¢
Current share
50%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.