Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Virginia?
KXSENATEVAD-26-MWAR · closes Nov 3, 2026 · 202 days remaining
Price
Last
94¢
Bid
97¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$762
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 5.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 5828.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 32 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 135% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 5.61 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 5829% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
174 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/15/2026, 3:42:49 AM
About this market
If Mark Warner wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Virginia Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXSENATEVAD-26-MWAR yes 100