Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May is priced at 1¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Outcome
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$1.3M
Identifier
0x4f61a39a...e4b2
May 23, 2026, 1:55 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$44K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Family volume
$1.3M
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
Identifier
0x4f61a39a…e4b2
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.3M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May 1¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.