SimpleFunctions

↑ $6,000 · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June

↑ $6,000 is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?.

Price history

1¢ current

3¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 26, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Outcome

↑ $6,000

Rank

#8 of 16

Leader

↓ $4,200 19¢

Range

1¢-19¢

Family volume

$4.8M

Identifier

0x1eedfdbf...4232

May 26, 2026, 3:44 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 3:44 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$442

Family rank

#8 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Family volume

$4.8M

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 1¢

Polymarket
0¢ spread
BidSize
100¢4.8K
100¢125
100¢1.0K
100¢74
100¢2.3K
100¢12K
100¢4.4K
100¢2.2K
AskSize
2¢4.0K
2¢6
2¢3.0K
2¢149
2¢100
2¢51
2¢2.3K
100¢45

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x1eedfdbf…4232

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$4.8M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

↓ $4,200 19¢

Current share

7%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

↓ $4,200

polymarket · 0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f

19¢
$313K$1K

↑ $5,000

polymarket · 0x6dd1f06973b667ea65c25dd5735480bb811f8a342e7cd93045634a4891ff5341

14¢
$58K$274

↑ $5,300

polymarket · 0x2bb5098144ef44990b0ae257df8db0fa66af0a5093a9a651bf8b63d1c546bd5f

4¢
$58K$3750.5

↑ $5,500

polymarket · 0x246559691ae64806ee51dcc5ca1d1216bf6e25d80127a3425b72ba559190e96f

3¢
$1.3M$3K0.3

↓ $3,800

polymarket · 0x1680cb8dd6aa67cc5daeb3e04552f5b7ac4ac64ec71b7f9c8d1757c7795786ca

3¢
$112K$5K0.0

↑ $5,400

polymarket · 0x7a280f219749e7e0ff9ac72b2f7b0166ab371f5cc96e0f0689417c769907dfe5

3¢
$52K$1730.3

↑ $6,500

polymarket · 0xb5799004182dc796006345365f449ceead54be4f8f20e5e1290ce57d16d2b8a3

2¢
$263K$161

↑ $7,000

polymarket · 0x8a62a7f7a9affdded6b3947b0fb63a5e8701e544a263d76d200599642c97d956

1¢
$557K$16

↑ $8,500

polymarket · 0x8a5a60f6fd16bf2713bddbfdd483e2978895ac19d9ca3017dbf278992a6f5810

1¢
$410K$451

↑ $8,000

polymarket · 0xa5e7d10be376119fb259e6a5943b72802ba120278d78cac17dc69bc69ce7dd80

1¢
$384K$5K

↓ $3,400

polymarket · 0xf412c94446fa1a6e51e96e65860c0a0d0dfe6ef49e209dfd849269fa24201892

1¢
$376K$452

↑ $6,000

polymarket · 0x1eedfdbff1c7a12b40b84ed8043b8acc8fd3400993f0d1445c5b1b172f244232

1¢
$336K$442

↑ $10,000

polymarket · 0xa12b90437f45f6d1e2224ec9afa76472eb2bf981d7391fed4a49d6e6c8506471

1¢
$246K$549

↑ $9,000

polymarket · 0x7abd4cc8b0e4cb0adec29103b57e8af7e0ce0855bf604e4eae40129aab0c206f

1¢
$121K$126

↑ $6,200

polymarket · 0x41321cf6f7de3f4cd158b99b3c3f51b0e1c807f5c3a7ab9d0140c24fbdf54b38

1¢
$108K$32

↑ $5,700

polymarket · 0xf5815cfd8808989d87c165bdd666c9f9df5db28698d53d3f5d1f2b0147d191bd

1¢
$107K$2K

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

financial

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Conceptmethodology

New Market Price Formation: The First 24 Hours of a Listed Contract

When a binary contract first lists, the price moves through four phases: maker seeding, discovery flow, tentative consensus, stable pricing. Trading rules and the maker opportunity in phases 1 and 2.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Conceptmethodology

The Settlement Halo: Microstructure Changes in the Final 24 Hours

How spreads, volume, and maker behavior change in the 24 hours before a prediction market resolves, why it happens, and three trading implications.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Conceptmethodology

Tail-of-Day Pin Risk: Why Daily-Settled Contracts Move at 3:55 PM ET

Why daily-settled Kalshi binaries see a violent maker withdrawal at 3:55 PM ET, the structural reason makers cannot hedge a near-settlement binary, and where the maker opportunity is.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.