Where will James Trafford go next
Aston Villa is priced at 37¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 41¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Where will James Trafford go next.
Price history
37¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If James Trafford's next club is Aston Villa before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Aston Villa
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
Aston Villa 41¢
Range
3¢-41¢
Family volume
$62
Identifier
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-AVL
May 28, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
41¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Where will James Trafford go next
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
Family volume
$62
Orderbook snapshot
41 / 42¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If James Trafford's next club is Aston Villa before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 9, 2026
Identifier
KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-AVL
Event family
Where will James Trafford go next.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$62
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Aston Villa 41¢
Current share
2%
Aston Villa
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-AVL
Newcastle
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-NEW
Tottenham
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-TOT
Sunderland
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-SUN
Manchester City
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-MCI
Manchester United
kalshi · KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JTRAFFORD-MUN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
How Bitcoin & Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle
Deep-dive for crypto investors and traders into Bitcoin and Ethereum 2026 price prediction markets. Learn how BTC/ETH halving base rates, ETF flows, DeFi/L2 growth, and global regulation shape market-implied odds for 2026 price targets.
US Oil Sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia in 2026: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Shock
A deep-dive into US oil sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia heading into 2026—covering Trump 2.0 policy, secondary sanctions, shadow fleets, global oil balances, European energy security, India/China behavior, and how prediction markets are pricing the next shock.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 37% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.