Olivia Dean · Which artists will have #1 hits in May
Olivia Dean is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 12 inside Which artists will have #1 hits in May?.
Price history
3¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.
Outcome
Olivia Dean
Rank
#5 of 12
Leader
Ariana Grande 90¢
Range
1¢-90¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
0x1f6498ee...fc6f
May 27, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$181
Family rank
#5 of 12
12 outcomes · Which artists will have #1 hits in May?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x1f6498ee…fc6f
Event family
Which artists will have #1 hits in May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Ariana Grande 90¢
Current share
5%
Ariana Grande
polymarket · 0xdce069a791c1a68197ba9a906e7173c004dbac539baa5142c6ee6d7f55af0ca5
Beyonce
polymarket · 0x485dac84dd45da7d92173d81c0c477f4614e945d5b116ae4e2b780b2e47ed255
The Weeknd
polymarket · 0x3cb278f13580cd0d1d71719cc490a24db85d010a6943105adc129c77db3f618b
Taylor Swift
polymarket · 0xc3536609d05b35ba3f24eaf86e53e74b104e6d9c96bdd5a4e95e6ab3a788bfff
Gracie Abrams
polymarket · 0xd6a4d6ae11f86719231d4db20955c2b4c6abd9c1b9809e4ebd2124f0a11aba5e
Olivia Dean
polymarket · 0x1f6498eec4bd489647ff8b1b5277c200d95d3d697f0cc0363b05df627206fc6f
Bad Bunny
polymarket · 0x75deb64e13942e6da68c83de7720da398094f9909ee1e070b9c086f91a340f1b
Alex Warren
polymarket · 0x5aabd042ed3748eb02b32333a5a38beda45713cade6677a037908a6e4a021bec
Kanye West
polymarket · 0x2c7df5f9b7f6fb8dfe5e9e48b8d22d2d03b393916533abd650af2fb44b251abb
Noah Kahan
polymarket · 0xb047e37419fc623fe8240e4143e94774fe42190b3e495613077be9c4de027c39
Bruno Mars
polymarket · 0x7c38140460b69db44f7a6b3cce8ae70f2f4533846bf2810be4f0d51efd20295c
Don Toliver
polymarket · 0x1babd8419c1aafeb139303fd4bafb59759409b2162fee514ce6bc26d465331ad
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 3% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.