Which artists will have #1 hits in May
Leader sits at 90% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ariana Grande
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Beyonce
Spread
61pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$116
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
3 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which artists will have #1 hits in May
Which artists will have #1 hits in May?: Gracie Abrams
0xd6a4d6…ba5e
Which artists will have #1 hits in May?: Ariana Grande
0xdce069…0ca5
Which artists will have #1 hits in May?: The Weeknd
0x3cb278…618b
Which artists will have #1 hits in May?: Taylor Swift
0xc35366…bfff
Which artists will have #1 hits in May?: Bad Bunny
0x75deb6…0f1b
Which artists will have #1 hits in May?: Beyonce
0x485dac…d255
Which artists will have #1 hits in May?: Olivia Dean
0x1f6498…fc6f
Analysis
The 89% probability reflects strong market confidence that at least one of the listed artists will achieve a #1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 during May 2026. This high likelihood reflects the combined track records and current chart presence of established artists like Ariana Grande, The Weeknd, and Beyoncé, who collectively have frequent chart success. The probability would decline if these artists release no new singles or if released music underperforms chart expectations; it would rise with new releases that immediately gain traction. The main uncertainty resolves through Billboard's weekly chart updates throughout May, with the critical factor being whether any artist's release reaches the top position during the month. Current trading shows Ariana Grande as the dominant outcome at 89%, while The Weeknd follows at 25%, suggesting market participants view her as the most likely candidate among the field.
- ›Ariana Grande's recent chart history and likelihood of a May release relative to other listed artists
- ›Whether any of these artists release new singles during May 2026, which is a prerequisite for chart eligibility
- ›The Weeknd trading at 25% despite being historically chart-dominant, indicating market skepticism about a May release from him
- ›Combined 7-outcome structure means even low individual probabilities aggregate substantially, making at least one #1 hit highly probable from this artist group
- ›Trading volume concentrated on Bad Bunny ($137 24h) versus minimal volume on The Weeknd ($0 24h), reflecting uncertainty about artist release timing
What moved the line
- May 26Beyonce↑27pp6→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 26The Weeknd↓7pp41→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 27The Weeknd↑7pp34→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Beyonce↑6pp33→39¢ · Polymarket
- May 25Taylor Swift↓4pp11→7¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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