The Weeknd · Which artists will have #1 hits in May
The Weeknd is priced at 25¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 45¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 12 inside Which artists will have #1 hits in May?.
Price history
25¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.
Outcome
The Weeknd
Rank
#3 of 12
Leader
Ariana Grande 90¢
Range
1¢-90¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
0x3cb278f1...618b
May 28, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
45¢
24h volume
$4
Family rank
#3 of 12
12 outcomes · Which artists will have #1 hits in May?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x3cb278f1…618b
Event family
Which artists will have #1 hits in May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
12
Highest price
Ariana Grande 90¢
Current share
2%
Ariana Grande
polymarket · 0xdce069a791c1a68197ba9a906e7173c004dbac539baa5142c6ee6d7f55af0ca5
Beyonce
polymarket · 0x485dac84dd45da7d92173d81c0c477f4614e945d5b116ae4e2b780b2e47ed255
The Weeknd
polymarket · 0x3cb278f13580cd0d1d71719cc490a24db85d010a6943105adc129c77db3f618b
Taylor Swift
polymarket · 0xc3536609d05b35ba3f24eaf86e53e74b104e6d9c96bdd5a4e95e6ab3a788bfff
Gracie Abrams
polymarket · 0xd6a4d6ae11f86719231d4db20955c2b4c6abd9c1b9809e4ebd2124f0a11aba5e
Olivia Dean
polymarket · 0x1f6498eec4bd489647ff8b1b5277c200d95d3d697f0cc0363b05df627206fc6f
Bad Bunny
polymarket · 0x75deb64e13942e6da68c83de7720da398094f9909ee1e070b9c086f91a340f1b
Alex Warren
polymarket · 0x5aabd042ed3748eb02b32333a5a38beda45713cade6677a037908a6e4a021bec
Kanye West
polymarket · 0x2c7df5f9b7f6fb8dfe5e9e48b8d22d2d03b393916533abd650af2fb44b251abb
Noah Kahan
polymarket · 0xb047e37419fc623fe8240e4143e94774fe42190b3e495613077be9c4de027c39
Bruno Mars
polymarket · 0x7c38140460b69db44f7a6b3cce8ae70f2f4533846bf2810be4f0d51efd20295c
Don Toliver
polymarket · 0x1babd8419c1aafeb139303fd4bafb59759409b2162fee514ce6bc26d465331ad
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.