Meituan · Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31
Meituan is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 14 inside Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?.
Price history
7¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Outcome
Meituan
Rank
#13 of 14
Leader
Google 58¢
Range
7¢-58¢
Family volume
$23K
Identifier
0xec0012c7...c2f5
May 28, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#13 of 14
14 outcomes · Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$23K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xec0012c7…c2f5
Event family
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$23K
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Google 58¢
Current share
7%
polymarket · 0x79307c54be4721fda43bac290c137d32a674a4b0322940e86a94524f0c1fc268
OpenAI
polymarket · 0x6f3c4a19afe0621f5bfd39a18625ec392dcd695c34a708f02a52c96ed3436773
xAI
polymarket · 0xa796a992017ac45b99a33d108f65e2eff86fd4daf9e51d44a65aee815d83f36b
Meta
polymarket · 0x1acdbd22cd0bba4d5a09b506330c5e299dd7820310621d1c609bf9e9be19a3a0
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0xd9eaacb65adac13538f933532cb6fe4415dba2d42a9f460457a7ecb10ea63374
ByteDance
polymarket · 0xe650ad00ab52a1daae5395f7b7d34678019dcf8a407e50e5b0cc731680b366e6
Microsoft
polymarket · 0x5ea9363a7dcccda830cad72d005d5afa597857fecda881b998b433c02c27b513
Z.ai
polymarket · 0xa43f0f313de2599ae9d8fe7080037e12316f6c58caf8c26c86b1f613a7a4fc3c
Baidu
polymarket · 0x680560695f3bd759633b9b748fc3582cebe6fc5d5c2bc9b8c2cfe9df36249eeb
Moonshot
polymarket · 0xd6e6a84dff227314b82e5ebc66f62611ef4f6c25a349c591f16bd699184a1e83
Alibaba
polymarket · 0x076729655c5138c73a60e73e2633cddf2b72fa055deb452b3f07bd608df06fa9
Amazon
polymarket · 0xab86b9ea5d963e336a38cf9cb9993f2aacfb321dbe10a91410355beee30db511
Mistral
polymarket · 0xff372e02c13dfbbe388958727c0d7e37a3ff00d6349031e2854427d83fc0c8ce
Meituan
polymarket · 0xec0012c7d5a63f984424b8d00e60e8b09e43ed12f55c0f10803a7756e06ac2f5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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