Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31
Leader sits at 78% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
44¢
OpenAI
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
216 days
Venue
Polymarket
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Microsoft
0x5ea936…b513
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Amazon
0xab86b9…b511
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Google
0x79307c…c268
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Mistral
0xff372e…c8ce
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Meituan
0xec0012…c2f5
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: ByteDance
0xe650ad…66e6
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: DeepSeek
0xd9eaac…3374
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Moonshot
0xd6e6a8…1e83
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: xAI
0xa796a9…f36b
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Z.ai
0xa43f0f…fc3c
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: OpenAI
0x6f3c4a…6773
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Baidu
0x680560…9eeb
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Meta
0x1acdbd…a3a0
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?: Alibaba
0x076729…6fa9
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Google will be recognized as having the #1 AI model by year-end 2026. The 80% probability significantly favors Google over competitors like OpenAI (24%), with margins driven by Google's existing model portfolio, computational resources, and recent research output. Market pricing suggests confidence in Google's continued leadership, though this assumes the definition of "#1" remains consistent with current industry benchmarks. Key catalysts include major model releases from competitors, performance evaluations on standardized benchmarks, and whether new capabilities in reasoning, multimodality, or domain-specific tasks shift market perception of which model leads. The seven-month timeframe allows for meaningful technical advances that could alter current rankings.
- ›Google's Gemini series current performance on published benchmarks (MMLU, coding, reasoning tasks) compared to GPT-4, Claude, and other major releases
- ›Timeline and capabilities of OpenAI's next major model release relative to Google's planned updates
- ›Definition and measurement criteria for "#1 model" (whether based on benchmarks, adoption, or institutional preference)
- ›Computational and training scale differences between competitors' latest model releases
- ›Publicly announced model launches or capability claims from Alibaba, Meta, Baidu, or Microsoft between now and December 31
What moved the line
- May 27OpenAI↑7pp39→46¢ · Polymarket
- May 26OpenAI↑5pp34→39¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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