Green Party · Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand
Green Party is priced at 51¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 28¢ bid, 80¢ ask, 52¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?.
Price history
51¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Outcome
Green Party
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
Labour Party 71¢
Range
33¢-71¢
Family volume
$879
Identifier
0x5634fa96...62d3
May 28, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
28¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
52¢
Reported volume
$41
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Family volume
$879
Orderbook snapshot
28 / 80¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
Identifier
0x5634fa96…62d3
Event family
Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$879
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Labour Party 71¢
Current share
5%
Labour Party
polymarket · 0x3c16919b7e254af192f6928e658641042f8db58e0b5894ae2109a0bec010732e
National Party
polymarket · 0x2dfd35e38c09c0abc2820d7f2a310a7a655f1d0282bbdbfc83acc0dbc933b526
Green Party
polymarket · 0x5634fa967ba4c4e5eb9ca57ae4d0644e879886f0cbecf6d7c408a1cece8162d3
Te Pāti Māori
polymarket · 0x252b6a054fa7bac3a2db0df1f09dbe971b91a3882dda80a0c63df171ff789c48
New Zealand First Party
polymarket · 0x65eec8e52edceb429870f5b2c80af5ade9e40e5490e3436cdf78ba5a2b8e12e9
ACT New Zealand
polymarket · 0x8519f1e095964b54aef0610916cac2add0996fd0146f496c6e66ba647a9094a6
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.