David Guetta · Who will perform at 2026 FIFA World Cup halftime show
David Guetta is priced at 49¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 97¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Who will perform at 2026 FIFA World Cup halftime show?.
Price history
49¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
FIFA has confirmed that the first World Cup halftime show will take place at the FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The show will be produced by Global Citizen. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show on July 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying performance includes any live appearance during the halftime show, including guest appearances, even if the artist does not perform a full set. If this event is cancelled, postponed, or rescheduled beyond September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage of the FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
David Guetta
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Shakira 56¢
Range
21¢-56¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
0xbf2a9523...324a
May 27, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
97¢
Reported volume
$41
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will perform at 2026 FIFA World Cup halftime show?
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
FIFA has confirmed that the first World Cup halftime show will take place at the FIFA World Cup Final on July 19, 2026 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The show will be produced by Global Citizen. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual performs live and in person at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show on July 19, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying performance includes any live appearance during the halftime show, including guest appearances, even if the artist does not perform a full set. If this event is cancelled, postponed, or rescheduled beyond September 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage of the FIFA World Cup Final halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
Identifier
0xbf2a9523…324a
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at —.
Event family
Who will perform at 2026 FIFA World Cup halftime show.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Shakira 56¢
Current share
2%
Shakira
polymarket · 0x2a50f81dd2bec3dfdd205b80e1257fbca85bde4f73ff1eb109d97d454a3dc426
Daddy Yankee
polymarket · 0x0163fe5187209bbfe044095428d1168573beeb86199153c00f6d5d46721ea603
Eminem
polymarket · 0x555e3150d016c34626601e07a3dbc2ce3ccf63943bb5ee926739824d4ace9289
Anuel AA
polymarket · 0x18b639c1f57c476458d512ea66e8783267efc3084f70e7ca212e434b6249b0d1
David Guetta
polymarket · 0xbf2a952398fa0409e1e2766f31d4ad85d1227e54a68b5e43a3afd8b9fe55324a
Justin Bieber
polymarket · 0xd2db97b61c5d0f07ca3c2fbcc2c1a862fdf4568e3d4494355581e26afa1f8517
Taylor Swift
polymarket · 0x895549b02213467c047f2cd05265d097fd7a5b0f20b771a3370e6e7dd0193502
Sam Smith
polymarket · 0x77bcb2f881e0106d068f0cc0bdd1bbae885fa8f253186021ccf19cf838f2ccda
Sabrina Carpenter
polymarket · 0x3b14033845f1d515871df9c03b071e5445a7f1542d8305c8aa8f93920126c033
Billie Eilish
polymarket · 0x181df7a98b8e73b4c3fc4c48ae5abfd89bbbe6f282fb00da7a2dd3e6ec0f7854
Ed Sheeran
polymarket · 0x200f5ae5cc98535f30dbcc522b7e29dce9a9ef30ad87a7fc8dd6bbc7278371fb
Coldplay
polymarket · 0xc94fe145203a04f7ad45615e75b5e0725a6cf68c3d297977af46d07d9db204d6
Chappell Roan
polymarket · 0x27eb74ca7d0e4aa1ac99e71fcfa7e9e63732b679c46185954a3fe1e8f3c8c174
Harry Styles
polymarket · 0xb45ba4e767301ca0d633db91a903a1264c48b400f899cf9bf1eaa0bbe00554d8
Nicki Minaj
polymarket · 0xd6fd787ac681dca8c998776403ec48f3f800461a79eae547ade543f458748c19
Karol G
polymarket · 0xbc3613f79b64aaeb7cbc3c5ade4d1b0251900169e334279337b1be87bb9e2417
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
New Market Price Formation: The First 24 Hours of a Listed Contract
When a binary contract first lists, the price moves through four phases: maker seeding, discovery flow, tentative consensus, stable pricing. Trading rules and the maker opportunity in phases 1 and 2.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 49% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.