Who will win California's top-two primary for governor
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
0¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If Eric Swalwell advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$114K
Identifier
KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-ESWA
May 28, 2026, 2:44 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
0¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$114K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Eric Swalwell advances to the general election for California governor in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-ESWA
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$114K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor 0¢
Current share
100%
Who will win California's top-two primary for governor
kalshi · KXGOVCAPRIMARY-26-ESWA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.