Civic Coalition in the next Polish general election
Civic Coalition is priced at 50¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 49¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 41¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Who will win the next Polish general election.
Price history
50¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the winner of the next Polish general election in 2027 is Civic Coalition, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Civic Coalition
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Civic Coalition 49¢
Range
42¢-49¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXPOLANDSEJM-27-KO
May 25, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
49¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
41¢
Reported volume
$157
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Who will win the next Polish general election
Closes
Nov 10, 2028
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
49 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the winner of the next Polish general election in 2027 is Civic Coalition, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 10, 2028
Identifier
KXPOLANDSEJM-27-KO
Event family
Who will win the next Polish general election.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Civic Coalition 49¢
Current share
—
Civic Coalition
kalshi · KXPOLANDSEJM-27-KO
Law and Justice
kalshi · KXPOLANDSEJM-27-PIS
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.