5 · Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record
5 is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 6 inside Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
5
Rank
#6 of 6
Leader
2 61¢
Range
1¢-61¢
Family volume
$2.9M
Identifier
0xecf2f4f2...ca26
Jun 8, 2026, 6:15 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$204
Family rank
#6 of 6
6 outcomes · Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$2.9M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xecf2f4f2…ca26
Event family
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2.9M
Outcomes
6
Highest price
2 61¢
Current share
26%
2
polymarket · 0x376f0a5ce8279b4bf840018217487848634b686a9669c8c2d79eca67410b1aeb
1
polymarket · 0xe67f4d31f0eba1b009b49d7a7739b2a5f53a2d7d979a0902b465a510492c33bb
4
polymarket · 0x6c8a4426ea2278ce7936c770cbf4d66ad2dead1c8ee50e90232e0379f6f42562
6 or lower
polymarket · 0x284c11566675c2764eeca776d2e0834fefc1430514b7b55adbb690d2fbbf678e
3
polymarket · 0x77e931cce8473e1b380bd4457a54d5948d3739894169cb23fb2b1bb20b6897bd
5
polymarket · 0xecf2f4f2222e3393545e73f6ed219065c6bfa5c66db56a66541a4a20961fca26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.