4 · Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record
4 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?.
Price history
5¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
4
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
2 61¢
Range
1¢-61¢
Family volume
$2.9M
Identifier
0x6c8a4426...2562
Jun 8, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$346
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$2.9M
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x6c8a4426…2562
Event family
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2.9M
Outcomes
6
Highest price
2 61¢
Current share
15%
2
polymarket · 0x376f0a5ce8279b4bf840018217487848634b686a9669c8c2d79eca67410b1aeb
1
polymarket · 0xe67f4d31f0eba1b009b49d7a7739b2a5f53a2d7d979a0902b465a510492c33bb
4
polymarket · 0x6c8a4426ea2278ce7936c770cbf4d66ad2dead1c8ee50e90232e0379f6f42562
6 or lower
polymarket · 0x284c11566675c2764eeca776d2e0834fefc1430514b7b55adbb690d2fbbf678e
3
polymarket · 0x77e931cce8473e1b380bd4457a54d5948d3739894169cb23fb2b1bb20b6897bd
5
polymarket · 0xecf2f4f2222e3393545e73f6ed219065c6bfa5c66db56a66541a4a20961fca26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter
How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Reflexivity Loops in Election Markets: When Price → Consensus → Price
Election prediction markets have a feedback loop where price becomes news becomes price. How the loop works, the 2024 case study, and how to size trades against it.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes
When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 5% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.