Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 is priced at 55¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 55¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
55¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$139K
Identifier
0x0a26a2ae...5797
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
55¢
Ask
56¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$11K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$139K
Orderbook snapshot
55 / 56¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x0a26a2ae…5797
Event family
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$139K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027 58¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.