Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 57% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
57%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+5pp
16h ago
24h volume
$4K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
216 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
0x0a26a2…5797
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that at least one additional country will formally join the Abraham Accords framework between now and the end of 2026. The accords, which began with UAE and Bahrain normalizing ties with Israel in 2020, represent a shift in regional diplomacy. The current 52% probability suggests roughly even odds, reflecting both ongoing diplomatic momentum in the region and significant barriers to expansion. Key drivers include the political stability of potential signatories, their domestic political constraints, and broader regional developments. The resolution will depend on official announcements by countries committing to the framework's terms, making diplomatic activity and policy statements from regional governments the primary indicators to monitor through the remainder of 2026.
- ›Track official statements and diplomatic visits from countries identified as potential signatories, particularly in the Gulf and North African regions
- ›Monitor changes in US administration priorities and Middle East policy, as American diplomatic support has been instrumental in previous signings
- ›Observe regional security developments and Israeli-Palestinian escalations, which could either motivate or deter new country participation
- ›Assess domestic political cycles in candidate countries, as leadership transitions or elections could shift willingness to normalize relations
- ›Watch for any formal framework expansions or modifications announced by existing signatories, which could signal openness to new members
What moved the line
- May 24Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?↑12pp44→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 27Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?↑8pp48→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 21Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?↓7pp56→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 26Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?↓7pp55→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 22Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?↓5pp49→44¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (57% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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