Golden State · Will Aday Mara be drafted
Golden State is priced at 9¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 8 inside Will Aday Mara be drafted.
Price history
9¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Aday Mara is selected by Golden State in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Golden State
Rank
#4 of 8
Leader
Chicago 94¢
Range
2¢-94¢
Family volume
$19
Identifier
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-GSW
May 25, 2026, 4:20 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
14¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#4 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Aday Mara be drafted
Closes
Jul 2, 2026
Family volume
$19
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Aday Mara is selected by Golden State in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 2, 2026
Identifier
KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-GSW
Event family
Will Aday Mara be drafted.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$19
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Chicago 94¢
Current share
0%
Chicago
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-CHI
Atlanta
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-ATL
Los Angeles C
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-LAC
Dallas
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-DAL
Golden State
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-GSW
Brooklyn
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-BKN
Milwaukee
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-MIL
Oklahoma City
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTTEAM-26AMAR-OKC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
sports
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.