Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31 is priced at 24¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 16¢ bid, 30¢ ask, 14¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
24¢ current
−26¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$16K
Identifier
0xefc3709f...d207
May 25, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
14¢
Reported volume
$16K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$16K
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 30¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xefc3709f…d207
Event family
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$16K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31 24¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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