SimpleFunctions

Above 9.75B · Will Billie Eilish have

Above 9.75B is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside Will Billie Eilish have.

Price history

98¢ current

+96¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 12, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Billie Eilish has Above 9.75B Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 9.75B

Rank

#10 of 16

Leader

Above 7.5B 99¢

Range

76¢-99¢

Family volume

$34

Identifier

KXARTISTSTREAMSY-BEILISH26DEC31-9.75B

May 27, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 4m ago

Implied probability

98¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 4m ago

Bid

96¢

Ask

98¢

Spread

Reported volume

$361

Family rank

#10 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Billie Eilish have

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

Family volume

$34

Orderbook snapshot

96 / 98¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
96¢599
AskSize
98¢500
99¢150

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Billie Eilish has Above 9.75B Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

Identifier

KXARTISTSTREAMSY-BEILISH26DEC31-9.75B

SF Signal
SF Index
1992.47
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

6.9%

IY (No)

3984.9%

Adj IY

1992%

CRI

24

Overround

9.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

6.9%
3984.9%
Adj IY
1992%
24
Overround
9.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.