ByteDance · Best Chinese AI Company end of May
ByteDance is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 11 inside Best Chinese AI Company end of May?.
Price history
2¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Outcome
ByteDance
Rank
#3 of 11
Leader
Alibaba 93¢
Range
0¢-93¢
Family volume
$341K
Identifier
0x370670e9...d700
May 28, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#3 of 11
11 outcomes · Best Chinese AI Company end of May?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$341K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x370670e9…d700
Event family
Best Chinese AI Company end of May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$341K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Alibaba 93¢
Current share
9%
Alibaba
polymarket · 0xef2bd56ef760e2ef54bfa47bfe99347db9be6bf7586501c1fde233385d0b1f6a
Z.ai
polymarket · 0x5dc25e6569aaf980f2ba0972fbb3cd862c22c6dad363b1e0cb150e6250fc480f
ByteDance
polymarket · 0x370670e9a47a793c3d41b0fa80625b3e32b085d6a3460db389b7e82a9530d700
Baidu
polymarket · 0xdd1c5c73140f0e2c4421ce87768749283ccf47ef162ae01a63614ebfc8c426d5
MiniMax
polymarket · 0xd3d49787699eccf221e0b6408ce2915f742d40723b35bfd7363b64c6aa9a3d20
Moonshot
polymarket · 0xe011a6e7f20812b27f1353860148fb20af6ba889c6dacf0bee7a6e5925e31cbe
DeepSeek
polymarket · 0x9bfc3cfdfeb5959d703df4544d7d15bdb779febb102dff5a4b731e28c7e0f307
Xiaomi
polymarket · 0xdbef16e38bc711be4cd624988bb77dfd3ca1961ca00caa930e4f97a10a774664
Tencent
polymarket · 0xc565e24bb040b2932ff2afa53dbb1ad95a82f2639856e5c1f2d78fb945c1e33d
Meituan
polymarket · 0x2ae21222651ad412af93fb908e9a4b02471d4a9074d4f5dc1dd869175dd3d5af
StepFun
polymarket · 0xea07bd440faa9dddc675a46e81b503d588a082ecf64de06ca3360164a4747174
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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