SimpleFunctions

Canada · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26B

Canada is priced at 83¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 82¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXWCGROUPQUAL-26B.

Price history

83¢ current

+11¢
70¢80¢
Apr 27, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

If Canada is one of the teams to qualify from Group B for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Canada

Rank

#2 of 4

Leader

Switzerland 91¢

Range

26¢-91¢

Family volume

$27

Identifier

KXWCGROUPQUAL-26B-CAN

May 28, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 22m ago

Implied probability

83¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 22m ago

Bid

82¢

Ask

83¢

Spread

24h volume

$1

Family rank

#2 of 4

4 outcomes · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26B

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Family volume

$27

Orderbook snapshot

82 / 83¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
82¢25
80¢3.4K
79¢17K
76¢2.0K
75¢2.7K
AskSize
83¢99
85¢100
87¢5.5K
88¢2.0K
89¢2.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Canada is one of the teams to qualify from Group B for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 11, 2026

Identifier

KXWCGROUPQUAL-26B-CAN

SF Signal
SF Index
1873.81
Regime
neutral

Event family

KXWCGROUPQUAL-26B.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$27

Outcomes

4

Highest price

Switzerland 91¢

Current share

4%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

180.6%

IY (No)

3747.6%

Adj IY

1874%

CRI

5

Overround

1.6%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

180.6%
3747.6%
Adj IY
1874%
5
Overround
1.6%

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.