Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027 is priced at 21¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
21¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Outcome
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$64K
Identifier
0xe9507a62...e568
Jun 8, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$227
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$64K
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government. A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government. If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party. If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.” The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xe9507a62…e568
Event family
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$64K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027 21¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.