Will marijuana be legalized federally?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 15% — a 14pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
8 contracts
Polymarket
15%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
14pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$334
10 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
960 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 29¢ · Polymarket 15¢ · 14pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (15¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (29¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will legislation that” vs “Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will legislation that
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXELECTIONBILL-27JAN01
Will legislation that designates June 14, the birthday of President Donald J. Trump, as a legal public holiday for federal employees become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday
KXBILLS-DJTB
Will legislation that preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems become law before Jan 1, 2027?: SELF DRIVE Act
KXBILLS-DRIVE
Will legislation that would revise federal housing programs to increase housing supply and affordability by expanding federal financing and grant authority for affordable housing and streamlining federal requirements that delay housing development become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Housing for the 21st Century Act
KXBILLS-HOUS
Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?: DEFIANCE Act
KXBILLS-DEFY
Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile
KXBILLS-MIN
Cluster 2
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
0xe9507a…e568
Cluster 3
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?
0x388459…823f
Cluster 4
Will Trump aprpove a new city on federal land
Will Trump aprpove a new city on federal land?: Before 2029
KXNEWCITY-29
Cluster 5
Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027
What moved the line
- Jun 4DEFIANCE Act↓6pp53→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Housing for the 21st Century Act↓6pp85→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 29OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?↑5pp12→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 31OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5Housing for the 21st Century Act↓4pp79→75¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in legislation
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- FK Dukla Praha vs. FC Baník Ostrava: FK Dukla Prahalast 25% · 13d
- FC Baník Ostrava vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň - More Markets: FC Viktoria Plzeň (-1.5)last 44% · 30d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In legislation
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.