Will marijuana be legalized federally?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−1pp
5h ago
24h volume
$106K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
912 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will legislation that” vs “Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will legislation that
Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXELECTIONBILL-27JAN01
Will legislation that creates a federal civil lawsuit right for victims of intimate deepfakes become law before Jan 1, 2027?: DEFIANCE Act
KXBILLS-DEFY
Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Critical-minerals stockpile
KXBILLS-MIN
Cluster 2
Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%
Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?: Below 5%
KXDEFGDP-26OCT20-T5
Cluster 3
Will Trump aprpove a new city on federal land
Will Trump aprpove a new city on federal land?: Before 2029
KXNEWCITY-29
Cluster 4
Will any sitting Supreme Court Justice be charged with a any federal crime before Jan 1, 2027
What moved the line
- Jul 18Before Jan 1, 2027↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in legislation
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act becomes law without Donald Trump’s signature before Jul 14, 2026last 97% · 8d
- Will the House pass a reconciliation bill before December 31, 2026last 97% · 43d
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...last 97% · 46d
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 60d
- Will sports prediction markets be banned?last 21% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In legislation
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.