SimpleFunctions

China GDP growth in Q2 2026 between 4.0% and 4.3%

4.0-4.3% is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 9 inside China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?.

Open on PolymarketView JSONEnter terminal

Price history

1¢ current

0¢5¢10¢
May 11, 2026May 23, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Outcome

4.0-4.3%

Rank

#6 of 9

Leader

4.6-4.9% 55¢

Range

0¢-55¢

Family volume

$35K

Identifier

0xb141cf8b...b2ae

May 25, 2026, 12:09 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 12:09 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

1¢

Ask

2¢

Spread

1¢

24h volume

$40

Family rank

#6 of 9

9 outcomes · China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Closes

Jul 16, 2026

Family volume

$35K

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 2¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢100
100¢567
0¢21K
0¢15K
0¢1.1K
0¢308
AskSize
2¢214
2¢158
5¢196
6¢410
9¢100
9¢30
10¢31
11¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 16, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jul 16, 2026

Identifier

0xb141cf8b…b2ae

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$35K

Outcomes

9

Highest price

4.6-4.9% 55¢

Current share

9%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

4.6-4.9%

polymarket · 0x800be7611c7efcdf5827c049e0baac8b6047b506af412e283dbac9ce7e202560

55¢
$8K$6090.1

4.9-5.2%

polymarket · 0x4af115cc5eadfbaa831523a17f297842011e6ba4175fc194b6d1e5e862193077

31¢
$4K$0—

5.2-5.5%

polymarket · 0x339ef2e6999b5fb8d818bc46a33cb05052e232c4f98121b4977a66a5ac4bda52

7¢
$5K$0—

4.3-4.6%

polymarket · 0x7ccef198fac90ac8a29aed052fc8c5c08b16bff84b3b4ded112248a9d8f885c2

7¢
$3K$63—

<4.0%

polymarket · 0x6887c26b460f1a92154f3a69c728087738a267917f5e6de248d980d13b799665

2¢
$4K$0—

4.0-4.3%

polymarket · 0xb141cf8b87ac142530d387f9099289e2ce8bbbfbbd5a80971758e5e601f1b2ae

1¢
$3K$40—

5.8-6.1%

polymarket · 0xece9ba8a439ff9328741e56f112c78ae433a709a66acbb2580322f0413868cde

1¢
$3K$0—

6.1%+

polymarket · 0xe8f6bff34996217c533756d90902bb2b2a3c01601f63e96c8d3c3015fc80102b

1¢
$3K$9—

5.5-5.8%

polymarket · 0xfb442d0e8ab3dd32f376bdd0b0fdad1593a8050d00bccc7be0ae6809a7ebc2f1

0¢
$3K$5—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.