Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026 is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
3¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$853K
Identifier
0x5ca616aa...662f
Jun 8, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$12K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Family volume
$853K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
Identifier
0x5ca616aa…662f
Event family
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$853K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026 3¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.335
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.