Will China invade Taiwan?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$250
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1202 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 20” vs “Will China overtake US GDP by 2030”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 20
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030
KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029
KXTAIWANLVL4-29JAN01
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXTAIWANLVL4-28JAN01
Cluster 2
Will China overtake US GDP by 2030
Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?: By 2030
CHINAUSGDP-30
What moved the line
- Sep 12Before Jan 1, 2028↓3pp18→15¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in china
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2028last 17% · 64d
- Will People's Republic of China agree to or announce the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2027last 52% · 64d
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027last 14% · 90d
- Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026last 6% · 90d
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026last 6% · 90d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in china.
In china
Related reading
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Emerging Markets Tank 2.81% – China-Led Selloff Intensifies
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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