Will China invade Taiwan?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 11 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 7% — a 22pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
8 contracts
Polymarket
7%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
22pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$224K
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1304 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 29¢ · Polymarket 7¢ · 22pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (7¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (29¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 20” vs “Will the tariff rate on China imports be”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 20
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXTAIWANLVL4-27JAN01
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030
KXTAIWANLVL4-30JAN01
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029
KXTAIWANLVL4-29JAN01
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXTAIWANLVL4-28JAN01
Cluster 2
Will the tariff rate on China imports be
Will the tariff rate on China imports be below 10% on Jul 1, 2026?: Below 10%
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-5
Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 10% and 19.99%
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-14
Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 30% and 39.99%
KXTARIFFRATEPRC-26JUL01-34
Cluster 3
Will China invade Taiwan
Cluster 4
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
0x4c80df…d584
Cluster 5
Will China overtake US GDP by 2030
Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?: By 2030
CHINAUSGDP-30
What moved the line
- Jun 3Below 10%↓9pp22→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Between 10% and 19.99%↑6pp71→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Before Jan 1, 2029↓6pp44→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 31Between 10% and 19.99%↑5pp66→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Before Jan 1, 2027↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in china
- Singapore vs. China PR - Halftime Resultlast 45% · 1d
- Singapore vs. China PR - More Marketslast 95% · 1d
- Singapore vs. China PR - Exact Scorelast 14% · 1d
- Singapore vs. China PRlast 61% · 1d
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 52.0last 93% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in china.
In china
Related reading
Trump China Visit Locked In at 95% Probability: Markets Expect Mid-May Summit
Donald Trump visiting China by May 15 is priced at 91¢ (+1¢) and by May 31 at 95¢ (+2¢) — extremely high conviction. This would be the most consequential US-China diplomatic engagement since Xi's reelection. Markets are pricing this as a near-certainty.
Trump China Visit May 15 Surges +13¢ — Diplomatic Breakthrough Priced
The Trump-China May 15 visit market jumped +13¢ to 72¢ today, signaling traders believe a diplomatic trip is imminent. Combined with the June 30 market at 83¢, prediction markets are pricing a near-certain Trump visit to China within 7 weeks. This has major implications for tariff de-escalation trades.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.