Christine Drazan receive between 40% and 45% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary
40% - 45% is priced at 92¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 90¢ ask, 67¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 7 inside Will Christine Drazan receive.
Price history
92¢ current
+78¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Christine Drazan in the 2026 Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary is 40% to 44.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
40% - 45%
Rank
#2 of 7
Leader
35% - 40% 26¢
Range
1¢-26¢
Family volume
$187
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA-42
May 25, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
67¢
Reported volume
$708
Family rank
#2 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Christine Drazan receive
Closes
May 19, 2027
Family volume
$187
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 90¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Christine Drazan in the 2026 Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary is 40% to 44.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 19, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA-42
Event family
Will Christine Drazan receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$187
Outcomes
7
Highest price
35% - 40% 26¢
Current share
0%
35% - 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA-37
40% - 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA-42
45% - 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA-47
Below 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA-12
25% - 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA-27
30% - 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA-32
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVORNOMR26CDRACDRA-75
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 92% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.