Graham Platner wins to win Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election
Graham Platner wins is priced at 70¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 69¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner.
Price history
70¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If ALL of the following occur for before Jan 2027: Dem Nominee: Graham Platner, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Graham Platner wins
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Graham Platner wins 69¢
Range
29¢-69¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXMESENOUTCOME-27JAN-GPD
May 27, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
69¢
Ask
70¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
69 / 70¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If ALL of the following occur for before Jan 2027: Dem Nominee: Graham Platner, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXMESENOUTCOME-27JAN-GPD
Event family
Will Dem Nominee be Graham Platner AND General Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Graham Platner wins 69¢
Current share
73%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.327
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.