Democratic by 9.0% or more · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07
Democratic by 9.0% or more is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07.
Price history
14¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democratic by 9.0% or more
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Democratic by 9.0% or more 14¢
Range
2¢-14¢
Family volume
$888
Identifier
POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM900T10000
May 24, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$125
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07
Closes
May 6, 2029
Family volume
$888
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a member of the Democratic Party wins the popular vote in 2028 by a margin of between 9.00-100.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 6, 2029
Identifier
POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM900T10000
Event family
POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$888
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Democratic by 9.0% or more 14¢
Current share
14%
Democratic by 9.0% or more
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM900T10000
Democratic by 5.0% to 5.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM500T599
Democratic by 2.0% to 2.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM200T299
Democratic by 3.0% to 3.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM300T399
Democratic by 4.0% to 4.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM400T499
Democratic by 6.0% to 6.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM600T699
Democratic by 7.0% to 7.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM700T799
Democratic by 0.01% to 0.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM1T99
Republican by 1.0% to 1.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-REP100T199
Republican by 6.0% to 6.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-REP600T699
Democratic by 1.0% to 1.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM100T199
Republican by 0.01% to 0.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-REP1T99
Democratic by 8.0% to 8.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-DEM800T899
Republican by 2.0% to 2.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-REP200T299
Republican by 3.0% to 3.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-REP300T399
Republican by 4.0% to 4.99%
kalshi · POPVOTEMOV-28NOV07-REP400T499
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.