May 22 · Will Trump sign an executive order on
May 22 is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 11 inside Will Trump sign an executive order on...?.
Price history
1¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.
Outcome
May 22
Rank
#7 of 11
Leader
May 24 35¢
Range
0¢-35¢
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
0x1b43dcfb...513b
May 28, 2026, 7:21 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$80
Family rank
#7 of 11
11 outcomes · Will Trump sign an executive order on...?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x1b43dcfb…513b
Event family
Will Trump sign an executive order on.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
May 24 35¢
Current share
8%
May 24
polymarket · 0x790113ffa28c674c32bcdb7a1d918556a432333a8b49aecb36dc4bec21b7f5b6
May 29
polymarket · 0x29f1ad89cabf4065e6161e4fd0721c5fb23d9c2ef5ab29969e5c09baae50effc
May 30
polymarket · 0x635e30f799475f9de08a7d4be07bf9e7532dad7a7bab1a92509f11b5e4742a75
May 31
polymarket · 0xcdb79712a6d6c77742da16a33ecf88e9d5328df94db11fcc401112a5e7ed3c11
May 28
polymarket · 0x0d637575b2a9aa09372956ca7b13b78006cfac6a47f96a966e73dcd417394225
May 21
polymarket · 0xf6a44d333647d49330cd88b1931be22e0a1b959dbe85576599a6de59b61edd34
May 23
polymarket · 0x6beb82cd54011b5cb4bc12acba1aaab7170eae6cc06a03958e691645c3fcc0f9
May 22
polymarket · 0x1b43dcfb2dc5601347f55d11c0f8ece003acc047db1ef0a3888e975581cf513b
May 26
polymarket · 0xaf2edc4d0860eae9f307151d1920a7c55e6bdb46027f76a449cbe8279f7cd95f
May 25
polymarket · 0xbb8c4f9d05afcda907a8288110a2b310e4a8a6e0a5405ae5753082f4d65c66cf
May 27
polymarket · 0x625d07f60d8c1209e7bf0331925d9ca518c4f39ec31a12a56b63c4b771dbfeb7
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.