Ed Gallrein receive between 45% and 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican primary
45% - 48% is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 9 inside Will Ed Gallrein receive.
Price history
1¢ current
−13¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ed Gallrein in the 2026 Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican primary is 45% to 47.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
45% - 48%
Rank
#2 of 9
Leader
54% - 57% 97¢
Range
1¢-97¢
Family volume
$255
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-46
May 27, 2026, 7:50 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$15
Family rank
#2 of 9
9 outcomes · Will Ed Gallrein receive
Closes
May 19, 2027
Family volume
$255
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ed Gallrein in the 2026 Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican primary is 45% to 47.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 19, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-46
Event family
Will Ed Gallrein receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$255
Outcomes
9
Highest price
54% - 57% 97¢
Current share
6%
54% - 57%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-55
Below 39%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-19
51% - 54%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-52
48% - 51%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-49
42% - 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-43
45% - 48%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-46
39% - 42%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-40
57% - 60%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-58
At least 60%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-KY4R26EGALEGAL-80
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.