Eric Swalwell receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Below 4% is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Will Eric Swalwell receive.
Price history
95¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 0% to 3.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Below 4%
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Below 4% 96¢
Range
1¢-96¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-2
May 25, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$43K
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · Will Eric Swalwell receive
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Eric Swalwell in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 0% to 3.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-2
Event family
Will Eric Swalwell receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Below 4% 96¢
Current share
—
Below 4%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-2
8% - 12%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-10
12% - 16%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-14
16% - 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-18
20% - 24%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-22
24% - 28%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-26
28% - 32%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-30
4% - 8%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-6
At least 32%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-26JUN02ESWA-66
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 95% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.