↑ $6,200 · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June
↑ $6,200 is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?.
Price history
1¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Outcome
↑ $6,200
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
↓ $4,300 47¢
Range
0¢-47¢
Family volume
$4.9M
Identifier
0x41321cf6...4b38
May 28, 2026, 10:16 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$33
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June?
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$4.9M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x41321cf6…4b38
Event family
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of June.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4.9M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
↓ $4,300 47¢
Current share
2%
↓ $4,300
polymarket · 0x29a63e3c3163446dfe747e94e41109b5f4061f708e6ac91cd3c715649bf7b76c
↓ $4,200
polymarket · 0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f
↑ $5,000
polymarket · 0x6dd1f06973b667ea65c25dd5735480bb811f8a342e7cd93045634a4891ff5341
↓ $3,800
polymarket · 0x1680cb8dd6aa67cc5daeb3e04552f5b7ac4ac64ec71b7f9c8d1757c7795786ca
↑ $5,300
polymarket · 0x2bb5098144ef44990b0ae257df8db0fa66af0a5093a9a651bf8b63d1c546bd5f
↑ $5,500
polymarket · 0x246559691ae64806ee51dcc5ca1d1216bf6e25d80127a3425b72ba559190e96f
↓ $3,400
polymarket · 0xf412c94446fa1a6e51e96e65860c0a0d0dfe6ef49e209dfd849269fa24201892
↑ $7,000
polymarket · 0x8a62a7f7a9affdded6b3947b0fb63a5e8701e544a263d76d200599642c97d956
↑ $8,500
polymarket · 0x8a5a60f6fd16bf2713bddbfdd483e2978895ac19d9ca3017dbf278992a6f5810
↑ $8,000
polymarket · 0xa5e7d10be376119fb259e6a5943b72802ba120278d78cac17dc69bc69ce7dd80
↑ $6,000
polymarket · 0x1eedfdbff1c7a12b40b84ed8043b8acc8fd3400993f0d1445c5b1b172f244232
↑ $6,500
polymarket · 0xb5799004182dc796006345365f449ceead54be4f8f20e5e1290ce57d16d2b8a3
↑ $9,000
polymarket · 0x7abd4cc8b0e4cb0adec29103b57e8af7e0ce0855bf604e4eae40129aab0c206f
↑ $6,200
polymarket · 0x41321cf6f7de3f4cd158b99b3c3f51b0e1c807f5c3a7ab9d0140c24fbdf54b38
↑ $5,700
polymarket · 0xf5815cfd8808989d87c165bdd666c9f9df5db28698d53d3f5d1f2b0147d191bd
↑ $10,000
polymarket · 0xa12b90437f45f6d1e2224ec9afa76472eb2bf981d7391fed4a49d6e6c8506471
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.