Half Man · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS
Half Man is priced at 87¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 84¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 10 inside KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS.
Price history
87¢ current
+85¢Contract brief
If Half Man is on the list of nominees for Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Half Man
Rank
#3 of 10
Leader
Beef 95¢
Range
1¢-95¢
Family volume
$123
Identifier
KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-HAL
Jun 7, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
84¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$700
Family rank
#3 of 10
10 outcomes · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS
Closes
Jul 8, 2027
Family volume
$123
Orderbook snapshot
84 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Half Man is on the list of nominees for Outstanding Limited Or Anthology Series at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 8, 2027
Identifier
KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-HAL
Event family
KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$123
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Beef 95¢
Current share
0%
Beef
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-BEE
The Beast in Me
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-BEA
Half Man
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-HAL
Love Story
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-LOV
All Her Fault
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-ALL
DTF St. Louis
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-DTF
Death by Lightning
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-DEA
Lord of the Flies
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-LOR
Black Rabbit
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-BLA
Bait
kalshi · KXEMMYNOMS-26-LS-BAI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 87% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.