SimpleFunctions

Above 47.5M · Will Hamdi have

Above 47.5M is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 25¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside Will Hamdi have.

Price history

35¢ current

+24¢
25¢50¢75¢
May 12, 2026May 17, 2026

Contract brief

If Hamdi has Above 47.5M Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 47.5M

Rank

#14 of 16

Leader

Above 15M 99¢

Range

15¢-99¢

Family volume

$15

Identifier

KXARTISTSTREAMSY-HAMDI26DEC31-47.5M

May 28, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 18m ago

Implied probability

35¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 18m ago

Bid

25¢

Ask

31¢

Spread

Reported volume

$861

Family rank

#14 of 16

16 outcomes · Will Hamdi have

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

Family volume

$15

Orderbook snapshot

25 / 31¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
25¢5
23¢250
22¢144
AskSize
31¢250
84¢8
85¢13
86¢697

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Hamdi has Above 47.5M Worldwide Streams during the January 01 - December 31, 2026 period, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 2, 2027

Identifier

KXARTISTSTREAMSY-HAMDI26DEC31-47.5M

SF Signal
SF Index
189.63
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

499.0%

IY (No)

55.4%

Adj IY

190%

CRI

3

Overround

5.5%

LAS

0.24

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

499.0%
55.4%
Adj IY
190%
3
Overround
5.5%
LAS
0.24

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.