Juan Reyes Mejía González · Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026
Juan Reyes Mejía González is priced at 49¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 90¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 7 inside Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?.
Price history
49¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Juan Reyes Mejía González
Rank
#3 of 7
Leader
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco 61¢
Range
28¢-61¢
Family volume
$137K
Identifier
0x7bca0e44...acd5
May 28, 2026, 10:17 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
90¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#3 of 7
7 outcomes · Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Closes
Feb 28, 2026
Family volume
$137K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 96¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Feb 28, 2026
Identifier
0x7bca0e44…acd5
Event family
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$137K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco 61¢
Current share
0%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
polymarket · 0xd2d3739630b201fd89af0cff05f679987d30064895e4793a22fb0861ccfdde64
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar
polymarket · 0x37959dc30829a2d36be8f1e05239b55a5ecf62c258435e47c1ddef4264a1a076
Juan Reyes Mejía González
polymarket · 0x7bca0e44bf00dd6fe52688e12106bc9e93f61962768331280ef402908a4aacd5
Juan Pablo Ledezma
polymarket · 0x705bfbfc8573b19f0cbaa8dd1e2c84e3f48a7db1d8e2af6adfd5485aa75dd541
Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar
polymarket · 0x6f287dfb4b51e34f11a39addd7a5a712f3fd955e16bacedb67110cf0b32a3e05
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
polymarket · 0xbda0bdb1e7858dc258d4a6b95a384da9159a65d61d47213a560e1957f1f0290e
Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez
polymarket · 0x4caf8733e896ec56a9ff3348b03c630f90df2f0ef0188d5d217ed3312840be12
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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