Julien Guerrier · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26
Julien Guerrier is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 38¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26.
Price history
8¢ current
Contract brief
If Julien Guerrier is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Julien Guerrier
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Lukas Nemecz 98¢
Range
1¢-98¢
Family volume
$22K
Identifier
KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-JGUE
May 28, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
38¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
Family volume
$22K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Julien Guerrier is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Austrian Alpine Open presented by Kitzbühel Tirol, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 14, 2026
Identifier
KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-JGUE
Event family
KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$22K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Lukas Nemecz 98¢
Current share
5%
Lukas Nemecz
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-LNEM
Euan Walker
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-EWAL
Fred Biondi
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-FBIO
Julien Guerrier
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-JGUE
Bernd Wiesberger
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-BWIE
Jason Scrivener
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-JSCR
Jacob Skov Olesen
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-JOLE
Thriston Lawrence
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-TLAW
Kevin Na
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-KNA
Alexander Levy
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-ALEV
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-KAPH
Marcel Schneider
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-MASC
Yannik Paul
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-YPAU
Sepp Straka
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-SSTR
MJ Daffue
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-MDAF
Rafa Cabrera Bello
kalshi · KXDPWORLDTOURR1LEAD-AUAOPBKT26-RCAB
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.