Karen Bass receive between 25% and 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election
25% - 30% is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 9 inside Will Karen Bass receive.
Price history
21¢ current
+16¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 25% to 29.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
25% - 30%
Rank
#2 of 9
Leader
30% - 35% 21¢
Range
1¢-21¢
Family volume
$180
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-27
May 25, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
18¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$740
Family rank
#2 of 9
9 outcomes · Will Karen Bass receive
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Family volume
$180
Orderbook snapshot
18 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Karen Bass in the first round of the Los Angeles mayoral election is 25% to 29.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-27
Event family
Will Karen Bass receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$180
Outcomes
9
Highest price
30% - 35% 21¢
Current share
0%
30% - 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-32
25% - 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-27
35% - 40%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-37
40% - 45%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-42
45% - 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-47
20% - 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-22
15% - 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-17
Below 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-7
At least 50%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-LAMAYOR1R26KBASKBAS-75
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 21% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.